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Survey Report

Insurance Marketplace Realities 2025 Spring Update – Surety

May 2, 2025

As we enter 2025, the surety industry faces potential impacts from shifts in tariffs and government funding, while maintaining overall vibrant activity and stable rates.
Global Surety
N/A
Rate predictions: Surety
Trend Range
Commercial/Contract/International Flat, (Neutral decrease) Flat
Private equity Flat, (Neutral decrease) +5% to +15%

Key takeaway

As we move forward into 2025 with a new administration, there are significant changes on the horizon that will impact the surety industry. The focus is shifting toward tariffs and government funding, with the potential impact still being evaluated.

Changes in fund allocation to government contracts, whether state or federal, as well as customs obligations and international transactions, are areas to watch closely. The overall activity in surety remains vibrant. Rates are stable, and we continue to see strong capacity across most credit qualities.

  • International surety demand continues to grow and will be fueled by construction to support the immense energy needs for the AI transformation and increased infrastructure for the growing international population.
  • Near-term challenges to growth include increasing global recession and stagnation fears resulting from the current tariff wars, increasing global bankruptcies, more conservative government spending and extreme weather.
  • Rates are expected to remain flat due to ample surety capacity; however, underwriting reviews may be more stringent during these uncertain times.
  • The demand for capacity in data centers, chip availability and equipment manufacturing will be a focus of the technology industry for the balance of 2025 and well into next year, should supply chains avoid crippling disruptions.
  • New supply chain challenges due to the political environment could delay fiber expansion plans, AI development and many other areas of growth.
  • Political uncertainty and a stubborn interest rate policy could push recession fears higher, negatively impacting capital deployment plans.
  • Contract surety remains strong, and credit continues to perform at acceptable levels. Underwriters have become less flexible as they monitor increasingly complex programs.
  • Contractor backlogs are solid for 2025 and much of 2026 due in large part to major capital expenditures in select sectors.  
  • Private equity is drawing more attention in the surety industry due to economic volatility and increasing loss activity.  

To read more, download the full report below.

Download

Title File Type File Size
Insurance Marketplace Realities 2025 Spring Update PDF 11.9 MB

Disclaimer

WTW hopes you found the general information provided here informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal advisors. In the event you would like more information regarding your insurance coverage, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. In North America, WTW offers insurance products through licensed entities, including Willis Towers Watson Northeast, Inc. (in the United States) and Willis Canada Inc. (in Canada).

Contacts

Scott Hull
Global Head of Surety, Corporate Risk and Broking
email Email phone +1 205 868 1364
Goly Jafari
Global Head of Surety Strategy and Operations
email Email phone +1 424 230 2183
Jeff Broyles
North America Commercial Surety Leader
email Email phone +1 360 213 8236
Douglas Wheeler
North America Contract Surety Leader
email Email phone +1 215 275 1779
Waiman Yeung
International Surety Practice Leader
email Email phone + 1 347 446 8278
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