In an increasingly polarised world, the resilience of our global food systems is increasingly becoming a defining issue for risk professionals and society at large. The cascading consequences of climate change, geopolitical tensions, and systemic economic shocks are converging to challenge the availability, access, and stability of food in ways that impact not just local communities but the global population.
According to a recent report from the UN, over 2.3 billion people experienced moderate or severe food insecurity, and 900 million people faced severe food insecurity in 2023[1]. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of global supply chains, but it was swiftly followed by extreme weather events, such as prolonged droughts in East Africa and severe floods in Pakistan, that further constrained production with Lloyds of London scenarios illustrating potential 5-year economic losses of around $5 trillion in extreme circumstances[2]. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, affecting two of the world’s major grain exporters, triggered a spike in global food prices in 2022, with the FAO Food Price Index reaching record highs in the aftermath of the initial invasion[3]
These shocks have disproportionately impacted low-income and import-dependent countries, and have exacerbated inequalities within nations, reinforcing the urgent need for a more resilient global food system. However, for the risk and (re)insurance industry, food insecurity is no longer a humanitarian concern alone - it is a systemic financial risk with broad implications for underwriting, asset management, and global supply chain continuity. Agricultural losses from climate extremes are testing the limits of traditional insurance products and exposing significant protection gaps. Understanding the drivers of food system fragility is central to assessing exposure and supporting enhanced resilience.
This edition of the Risk and Resilience Review, produced in collaboration with research partners from the Willis Research Network, delves into the complexities of food security through a systemic risk lens. Drawing on interdisciplinary research and scenario analysis, key findings from the review highlight the increasing need for risk quantification beyond traditional boundaries, identifying stress points in agricultural production, food trade dependencies, and the financial linkages that amplify disruption. The analysis makes the case for integrating food system resilience into catastrophe modelling, investment strategy, and public-private risk transfer solutions.
From the design of climate-resilient agricultural insurance to sovereign-level risk management strategies, the implications for the risk and (re)insurance industry are profound. This work underscores the importance of proactive engagement across sectors to strengthen resilience in the face of mounting uncertainty.
Based on work analysing historical claims data from Mexico’s CADENA program from 2005 and 2011, Section 2.1 pulls together three key insights into agricultural insurance, food security and risk management from a study completed by the European Centre for Risk and Resilience Studies, Southern Denmark University, supported by the Willis Research Network and the World Bank. The first piece reviews pricing weather risks in crop and livestock insurance using statistical models. The second highlights index-based insurance and its role in managing climate shocks with the final article presenting global crop insurance case studies, exploring policy, adoption, and coverage expansion.
Food systems are increasingly exposed to biological and environmental risks that challenge global resilience. Section 2.2 examines two critical threats in this space. With WRN partners at the Petersen Institute we explore the depletion of fish stocks in the East and South China Seas, highlighting concerns about long-term sustainability and regional food security. In a second piece, we discuss the rising frequency of infectious disease outbreaks in livestock supply chains. From African swine fever to avian influenza, these events are causing significant supply disruptions and financial losses.
Disruptions in food and drink supply chains—from climate shocks to cyberattacks—can ripple rapidly across global markets, threatening food security and corporate stability. In Section 2.3 we use findings from the 2025 WTW Supply Chain survey to explore the critical role of insurance in helping businesses anticipate, absorb, and adapt to these shocks. The article highlights how tailored risk transfer solutions, including business interruption, contingent supply, and parametric covers, are evolving to protect against a wider range of hazards.
Food security is deeply shaped by political forces—national policy choices, global trade rules, and international development priorities. Section 2.4 examines how political agendas influence the allocation of food aid, agricultural subsidies, and responses to crises, often with unequal consequences. It highlights how global institutions and national governments must balance domestic pressures with cross-border interdependence in food systems and shows as climate and conflict strain resources, food security is increasingly a test of governance as much as supply.
The UK’s food system is tightly integrated, highly efficient—and increasingly vulnerable to systemic shocks. While individually manageable, risks including disruptions to fuel supply, cyberattacks on logistics networks, extreme weather events, and trade or border restrictions, can combine in cascading ways to threaten food availability, access, and affordability. Drawing on scenario analysis and recent stress tests, Section 2.5 highlights the need for proactive risk assessment, robust contingency planning, and insurance innovation to support national food resilience in an era of compounding threats.
